NFL Player Projections
Week 6 โ opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume ร efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 ยท updated 11d ago.
League & scoring settings โ server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config
66 players ยท ranked by VORP under dk_classic scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023โ25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; โ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q ยท 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.
Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 C.J. Stroud ยท 17.0 pts ยท RB29 Woody Marks ยท 9.2 pts ยท WR41 Kendrick Bourne ยท 8.5 pts ยท TE13 Mark Andrews ยท 8.4 pts
| # | Player | Pos | Tm | Opp | Status | Pts | VORP | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | RecTD | Car | RuYd | RuTD | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Purdy | QB | SF | vs WAS | 22.1 | +5.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 17.5 | 0.3 | 32.1 | 290.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | |
| 2 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | @ LV | 21.4 | +4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 30.4 | 0.6 | 30.9 | 230.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | |
| 3 | Drake Maye | QB | NE | vs NYJ | 20.9 | +3.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 21.2 | 0.3 | 30.9 | 268.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | vs ARI | 19.6 | +2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 6.8 | 0.1 | 34.1 | 268.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | |
| 5 | Deshaun Watson thin prior (112 dropbacks) | QB | CLE | vs BAL | 18.8 | +1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 25.3 | 0.4 | 35.0 | 232.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | |
| 6 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | @ GB | 18.5 | +1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 10.1 | 0.2 | 36.2 | 259.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | |
| 7 | Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | @ SF | 18.0 | +1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 27.4 | 0.3 | 30.8 | 211.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | |
| 8 | Jordan Love | QB | GB | vs DAL | 17.5 | +0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.2 | 0.1 | 30.1 | 242.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | |
| 9 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | vs LAC | 17.3 | +0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 12.9 | 0.2 | 34.8 | 243.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | |
| 10 | Bo Nix | QB | DEN | vs SEA | 17.2 | +0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 16.5 | 0.2 | 33.9 | 222.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | |
| 11 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | @ KC | 17.1 | +0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 17.2 | 0.2 | 33.1 | 226.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | |
| 12 | C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | @ JAX | 17.0 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 13.6 | 0.2 | 33.9 | 239.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | |
| 13 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | vs HOU | 16.9 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 12.5 | 0.2 | 33.4 | 232.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | |
| 14 | Daniel Jones | QB | IND | vs TEN | 16.9 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 9.7 | 0.2 | 32.0 | 252.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | |
| 15 | Tyler Shough | QB | NO | @ NYG | 16.6 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 13.7 | 0.2 | 34.0 | 240.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | |
| 16 | Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | @ LA | 16.4 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 13.8 | 0.2 | 34.8 | 220.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | |
| 17 | Tanner McKee thin prior (37 dropbacks) | QB | PHI | vs CAR | 16.1 | -0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 10.1 | 0.2 | 29.7 | 223.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | |
| 18 | Michael Penix Jr. | QB | ATL | vs CHI | 15.8 | -1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 8.2 | 0.1 | 32.2 | 239.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | |
| 19 | Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | @ NE | 15.8 | -1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 13.9 | 0.2 | 32.4 | 223.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | |
| 20 | Sam Darnold | QB | SEA | @ DEN | 15.6 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 5.6 | 0.1 | 31.6 | 230.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | |
| 21 | Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | @ ATL | Q ยท 47% | 15.6 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 9.9 | 0.1 | 32.9 | 219.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 22 | Jameis Winston thin prior (140 dropbacks) | QB | NYG | vs NO | 15.6 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.6 | 0.1 | 32.1 | 234.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | |
| 23 | Jalon Daniels thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | TB | vs PIT | 15.6 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 13.7 | 0.2 | 33.1 | 210.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | |
| 24 | Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | vs BUF | 15.3 | -1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 7.0 | 0.1 | 32.9 | 229.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | |
| 25 | Cam Ward | QB | TEN | @ IND | 13.8 | -3.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 10.6 | 0.2 | 32.0 | 198.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | |
| 26 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | @ TB | 13.6 | -3.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 6.3 | 0.1 | 31.2 | 191.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | |
| 27 | Bryce Young | QB | CAR | @ PHI | 12.9 | -4.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 8.4 | 0.1 | 31.8 | 183.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | |
| 28 | Tyler Huntley thin prior (90 dropbacks) | QB | BAL | @ CLE | 12.5 | -4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 14.1 | 0.2 | 27.5 | 165.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | |
| 29 | Tyson Bagent thin prior (32 dropbacks) | QB | CHI | @ ATL | 2.8 | -14.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 14.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 30 | Athan Kaliakmanis thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | WAS | @ SF | 1.1 | -15.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 5.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 31 | Anthony Richardson thin prior (103 dropbacks) | QB | IND | vs TEN | 0.8 | -16.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 32 | Tyrod Taylor thin prior (120 dropbacks) | QB | GB | vs DAL | 0.7 | -16.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 33 | Spencer Rattler | QB | NO | @ NYG | 0.7 | -16.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 34 | J.J. McCarthy thin prior (135 dropbacks) | QB | NYG | vs NO | 0.7 | -16.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 35 | Mac Jones | QB | SF | vs WAS | 0.6 | -16.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 36 | Mason Rudolph thin prior (115 dropbacks) | QB | PIT | @ TB | 0.6 | -16.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 37 | Tommy DeVito thin prior (58 dropbacks) | QB | NE | vs NYJ | 0.6 | -16.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 38 | Davis Mills thin prior (103 dropbacks) | QB | HOU | @ JAX | 0.6 | -16.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 39 | Kenny Pickett thin prior (110 dropbacks) | QB | CAR | @ PHI | 0.5 | -16.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 40 | Easton Stick thin prior (38 dropbacks) | QB | TB | vs PIT | 0.5 | -16.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 41 | Sam Howell thin prior (141 dropbacks) | QB | DAL | @ GB | 0.5 | -16.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 42 | Jarrett Stidham thin prior (15 dropbacks) | QB | DEN | vs SEA | 0.5 | -16.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 43 | Cade Klubnik thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | NYJ | @ NE | 0.5 | -16.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 44 | Stetson Bennett thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LA | vs ARI | 0.5 | -16.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 45 | Fernando Mendoza thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LV | vs BUF | 0.5 | -16.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 46 | Drew Lock thin prior (76 dropbacks) | QB | SEA | @ DEN | 0.5 | -16.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 47 | Cole Payton thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | PHI | vs CAR | 0.5 | -16.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 48 | Joe Fagnano thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | BAL | @ CLE | 0.5 | -16.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 49 | Quinn Ewers thin prior (46 dropbacks) | QB | JAX | vs HOU | 0.5 | -16.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 50 | Gardner Minshew | QB | ARI | @ LA | 0.5 | -16.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 51 | Shedeur Sanders thin prior (118 dropbacks) | QB | CLE | vs BAL | 0.4 | -16.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 52 | Kyle Allen thin prior (4 dropbacks) | QB | BUF | @ LV | 0.4 | -16.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 53 | Justin Fields | QB | KC | vs LAC | 0.4 | -16.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 54 | DJ Uiagalelei thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LAC | @ KC | 0.4 | -16.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 55 | Mitchell Trubisky thin prior (48 dropbacks) | QB | TEN | @ IND | 0.4 | -16.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 56 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | ATL | vs CHI | 0.3 | -16.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 57 | Andy Dalton thin prior (85 dropbacks) | QB | ATL | vs CHI | 0.0 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 58 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 59 | Joe Flacco | QB | CIN | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 60 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 61 | Joshua Dobbs thin prior (109 dropbacks) | QB | DET | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 62 | Malik Willis thin prior (39 dropbacks) | QB | MIA | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 63 | Kyle McCord thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | MIA | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 64 | Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 65 | Carson Wentz thin prior (106 dropbacks) | QB | MIN | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 66 | Max Brosmer thin prior (42 dropbacks) | QB | MIN | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams ร starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.
Known limitations
- Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023โ25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1โ4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5โ6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
- Team pass volume is a 2023โ25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.